In tonights 5pm EDT domestic U.S./Canada airfare distribution, Delta partially rolled back the 5$ one-way increase that started at the end of last week.

The Delta partial rollback was on 10% of their increases filed on Thursday.

It is not unusual for competitive pressures to cause an airline to partially rollback increases (in this case a quick sampling shows Delta rolling back on competing AirTran markets where they did not follow on the increase late last week).

Additionally, United and Northwest both had minor 5$ one-way rollbacks on less than 2% of their original increases, showing that jockeying for position is starting to occur this evening.

At this point there is no indication on whether or not a full rollback is likely to occur.

The next airfare distribution occurs at 10am EDT Monday morning and we will update via e-mail on significant activity.

Anyone that would like a spreadsheet of the airfare data that supports this analysis can send me a note at mailto:rick@farecompare.com.

At 12:30pm eastern Continental filed a major increase of 5$ one-way for both leisure and business fares including 0, 3, 7, 14 and 21 day advance purchase categories.

A total of 7,762 markets (unique city pairs) where increased by 5$ one-way.

Analysis of the tops 50 cities to/from each other yields a total of 1,179 markets and Continentals increase is on 484 of these top markets.

The timing of this increase is unusual, initiating airlines normally issue increases at 8pm on Thursday night for maximum impact.

Non-stop flight schedule analysis for the U.S. and Canada shows:

• Continental has non-stop flights in 822 markets (unique city pairs) in the U.S. and Canada
• Fare increases of 5$ one-way occurred in 415 of these 822 non-stop markets or 50.4% of the non-stop Continental route system.

Further matching and rollbacks are likely to occur this evening and over the weekend.We will send out an update after the 8pm eastern airfare feed.

This evening at 8pm partners Air Canada and United Airlines raised airfares for travel between U.S. and Canada (trans-border) by 2 to 3 percent.

This increase includes both business and leisure airfares (0, 3, 7, 10, 14, 21, 30 day advance purchase).

Non-stop analysis of Air Canada and United flights shows:

• Air Canada has 75 markets with trans-border non-stops. This airfare increase applied to 100% of these routes.
• United has 22 trans-border non-stop markets. This airfare increase applied to 100% of these routes.

—–Separately United Airline raised prices by 5$ each way for travel to Hawaii from all domestic departure points

During the day (19-Jun) there was consistent matching activity on AirTran markets.

The volume was significant. We only send out this alert when the matching is above 15%.

The matching statistics are posted below.

Glossary

Market city pair

Major Markets top 1250 city pairs (50 top cities to/from each other), some airlines do not have connecting flights in some markets

19-Jun Decrease Matching Activity

Monday evening (18-June) at 8pm AirTran filed a system-wide 14-day advance purchase airfare sale (see our original post showing this is the 4^th summer airfare sale in the past 40 days by AirTran)

This morning (Tuesday 19-June) at 10:00am all the major airlines except Continental and US Airways matched this airfare sale in overlapping AirTran markets.

Continental did lower a small number of airfares to protect their Cleveland and Newark hubs.

This sale comes on the heals of an business fare increase (less than 14-day advance purchase) 2 weeks ago which gave the major airlines fuel to match the increase.

As an example of the scale of the matching in the 14-day advance purchase airfares:

American matched 52 markets, average decrease $80, largest decrease $307

Delta matched in 75 markets, average decrease $26, largest decrease $202

United matched 835 markets, average decrease $42, maximum decrease $586

Review of the 12:30pm EDT airfare distribution feed on 4-June-2007 shows that AirTran triggered the first wave of increases of $5 and $10 each way between 32% of the top 50 U.S. Domestic cities, with Continental matching and extending at 8:00pm EDT along the other major airlines matching selective overlap markets and extending from their hubs.

After the 5-June 10:00 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. EDT airfare distribution feeds (next feed 8:00pm EDT) the activity is relatively light with the following highlights:

• Continental reinforces its increase of $5 one-way for 3-day advance purchase airfares between 11% of the top 50 cities (30% Monday night), with very little Southwest route overlap.
• The other major airlines continue to maintain equilibrium by matching selected overlap markets with Continental and AirTran.
• Northwest and Delta roll back some of its matching increases from last night on competitive Southwest routes.

The sensitivity to increases on Southwest routes at this point in the week is worth noting.

Tonight 4-June-2007 at 8:00 p.m. EDT Continental Airlines filed a major airfare increase (30% of the top U.S. markets) of $5 and $10 one-way.

This increase triggered selective matching (13% or less of top U.S. markets) by American, Delta, Northwest, United and US Airways.

American and Delta also used this opportunity to increase airfares in a similar $5 and $10 one-way fashion from their hub airports.

This particular attempted increase occurs on a Monday evening which is unusual. In the past month the major airlines have attempted increases on Thursday evening which has provided the weekend for matching activity and rollback decision making.

In separate news U.S. Airways filed a $158 airfare sale in13% of the top 1250 U.S. Domestic Markets.

Continental Airlines

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1) Increased airfare between 30% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)

2) $10 one-way (20$ roundtrip) on walk-up airfares (0 day advance purchase)

3) $5 one-way (10$ roundtrip) on airfares with advance purchase of 3 days or more

4) For example, Continental increased airfare to 50% of the top 50 U.S. domestic destinations from their Houston hub.

Delta Airlines

—————-

1) Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way between 7% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)

2) For example, Delta increased airfare by $5 and $10 one-way to 65% of the top 50 U.S. domestic destinations from its hub in Atlanta.

American Airlines

———————

1) Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way between 9% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)

2) Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way to 30% of the top 50 U.S. domestic destinations from its hub in Dallas-Ft. Worth.

Northwest Airlines

———————–

1) Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way between 13% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)

United Airlines

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1) Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way between 7% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)

US Airways

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1) Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way between 11% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)

2) Filed a $158 airfare sale on 7 day advance purchase tickets in 13% of the top 1250 U.S. domestic markets.